The Personal Website of Mark W. Dawson

Public Polling

Introduction

Political polling has become ubiquitous and nefarious in today’s society.

Ubiquitous because no matter how inane, vacuous, unimportant, or insignificant the poll, there are people and organizations that will poll the subject. And there will be a hubbub over the results. This is not much of a concern of mine, as people and groups are free to do whatever they choose with their time and monies, and I am free to ignore these polls.

Nefarious, however, is a big concern of mine. It is well established that the wording of the questions, the order in which they are asked, and the number and form of alternative answers offered can influence the results of polls, and therefore influence public policy.

Statistical Methods of Polling

Among the many problems of political polling is the use of statistical methods by pollsters. Problems with statistical methods in polling can lead to significant inaccuracies in predicting public opinion, which may distort election outcomes and undermine trust in the democratic process. Additionally, these inaccuracies can create misleading perceptions of voter support and contribute to political polarization.

Statistics, in themselves, are subject to many problems, as I have outlined in my article, "Oh What A Tangled Web We Weave". The statistical methods used to create a public poll also have many inherent problems. Coverage bias is a source of error that arises when samples are not representative of the population due to the polling methodology. This has become an even greater problem as technology has made it more difficult for pollsters to reach a representative sample of the public. At the beginning of polling, most public polls were conducted by calling people at home. Many people participated in these polls if they had the time and inclination to do so. However, today, home telephones are dwindling as people switch to using their cell phones. When using a cell phone, you may be at work, out walking or shopping, or engaged in other activities that you do not want to be interrupted. With the increased use of text messaging and social apps for communication, this problem is getting worse. Therefore, fewer people are participating in a poll, and those who do are not a true representative sample.

Self-selection bias arises whenever individuals select or exclude themselves from a poll, leading to a biased sample. Polls are also inaccurate due to non-response bias or response bias. This occurs when someone does not answer or answers a question improperly. Many people simply refuse to participate in a poll for various reasons. They may not believe in polling, or they believe the poll or pollster is biased, and thus they will not get involved in polling. If they do participate, they may answer not what they think or feel, but what they believe the pollster thinks or feels (sympathetic response). They may also answer inaccurately because they fear being disparaged for their answer. This is especially true in a politically correct environment, as many people become reluctant to provide a non-politically correct opinion.

Pollsters attempt to correct for these situations by applying various statistical techniques. However, the question then becomes whether these statistical corrections are valid or a reflection of pollsters’ biases or prejudices.

Given the failure of pollsters in past Presidential and Congressional elections, it is proper to ask whether their political polls are correct or incorrect. Pollsters would answer that they have changed their statistical corrections based on what they learned from past elections. However, I am dubious, as their statistical corrections are but guesstimates, and they may be wrong guesstimates. In addition, society has become more polarized, and pollsters may not be able to make accurate guesstimates because of this polarization.

A good (but somewhat dated but still applicable) overview of political polling is the Brookings Institute articles on “Polling & Public Opinion: The good, the bad, and the ugly” and “Can We Trust the Polls?: It all depends”.

Polls also have a host of other problems. Entire books have been written on the problems of political polling. For these reasons, a poll can be conducted with nefarious intentions and inaccurate results. I will not go into any of these problems, as it is beyond the scope of this Chirp.

Statistical Methodology

Polling relies on various statistical methods to ensure accuracy, including probability sampling, which randomly selects participants to represent the population, and weighting, which adjusts survey results to align with demographic characteristics. Additionally, techniques for mitigating bias in non-probability samples, such as online surveys, are crucial for improving polling reliability.

Overview of Polling Methods

Polling employs various statistical techniques to gather and analyze public opinion accurately. The two primary methods are probability sampling and weighting.

Probability Sampling

• Definition: This method involves randomly selecting participants from a population to ensure that every individual has an equal chance of being chosen.
• Purpose: It aims to create a representative sample that reflects the broader population's views.

Weighting

• Definition: Weighting adjusts survey results to correct for demographic imbalances in the sample.
• Purpose: This ensures that the sample aligns with key characteristics of the population, such as age, race, and education level.

Addressing Bias in Non-Probability Samples

With the rise of online surveys, non-probability sampling has become more common. However, these methods can introduce bias. Here are key techniques to mitigate this issue:

Techniques for Reducing Bias

Technique	Description
Statistical Adjustment	Adjusts data to better reflect the population by correcting for known biases.
Calibration	Uses external data to align survey results with actual population metrics.
Modeling	Applies statistical models to predict and adjust for potential biases in responses.

Importance of Transparency

Transparency in polling methodology is crucial for accuracy. Polls should disclose:

• Method of Data Collection: Whether the poll was conducted online, by phone, or through mail.
• Weighting Details: Information on how and why the data was weighted.

By employing these statistical methods and ensuring transparency, polling can provide a more accurate picture of public opinion, which is essential for a functioning democracy.

Herding Among Pollsters

Among the many problems of political polling, as I have written in my Article on “Public Polling", is the problem of herding. Herding among pollsters is the practice of adjusting results to align with the consensus of other polls, often to avoid criticism for being an outlier. This practice can lead to a consensus that may not accurately reflect public opinion, resulting in systematic polling errors. It reduces the diversity of poll results, making it harder to identify true voter sentiment and potentially skewing predictions about election outcomes. Herding in polling can also create a false sense of certainty about election outcomes in the public mind, as pollsters may adjust their results to align with the consensus rather than reflect true public opinion. This behavior can result in systematic errors that mislead voters and create complacency, making unexpected election results more likely.

The reasons for herding are many, but the two primary reasons are ‘Fear of Criticism’, in which pollsters often avoid publishing results that significantly differ from the consensus to prevent backlash, and ‘Brand Protection’, because maintaining a reputation is crucial for pollsters and divergent results can lead to perceptions of incompetence.

The consequences of herding are many, but two that affect pollsters are ‘Reduced Accuracy’ and ‘Distorted Public Sentiment.’ When many pollsters herd, overall polling averages can become less accurate. This is because the independent opinions that should contribute to a diverse polling landscape are suppressed. Herding can also mask the true opinions of the electorate, making it difficult to gauge genuine public sentiment.

It is difficult to identify specific instances of herding, but you may recognize overall herding by looking for: ‘Similar Results Across Polls’, in which numerous independent polls show nearly identical figures, which may indicate herding. Another indicator is ‘Methodological Similarities’, in which polls use similar sampling methods, question wording, or data adjustments that can produce closely aligned results. You should also be aware of the ‘Timing of Polls’, in which polls conducted around the same time may show similar trends, but consistent patterns over time warrant scrutiny.

Herding can create a false sense of precision in public perception. While individual polls may appear accurate, the collective results may not reflect the full diversity of voter opinions. This can be particularly problematic in close races, where the stakes are high and accurate polling is essential to understanding voter behavior.

Understanding Poll Herding

Herding among pollsters is a phenomenon where polling organizations modify their results to align with the consensus of other polls. This practice is primarily driven by the fear of being criticized for presenting outlier results.

Reasons for Herding

• Fear of Criticism: Pollsters often avoid publishing results that significantly differ from the consensus to prevent backlash.
• Brand Protection: Maintaining a reputation is crucial for pollsters, as divergent results can lead to perceptions of incompetence.

Consequences of Herding

• Reduced Accuracy: When many pollsters herd, the overall polling averages can become less accurate. This is because the independent opinions that should contribute to a diverse polling landscape are suppressed.
• Distorted Public Sentiment: Herding can mask the true opinions of the electorate, making it difficult to gauge genuine public sentiment.

Identifying Herding

To recognize herding, look for:

• Similar Results Across Polls: If numerous independent polls show nearly identical figures, it may indicate herding.
• Methodological Similarities: Polls using similar sampling methods, question wording, or data adjustments can produce closely aligned results.
• Timing of Polls: Polls conducted around the same time may show similar trends, but consistent patterns over time warrant scrutiny.

Impact on Polling Averages

Herding can lead to a false sense of precision in polling averages. While individual polls may appear accurate, the collective results may not reflect the true diversity of voter opinions. This can be particularly problematic in close races, where the stakes are high, and accurate polling is essential for understanding voter behavior.

National Average Polling

Among the many problems of political polling, as I have written in my Article on “Public Polling", is the question of national averages in polling. National average polling aggregates results from various polls to reflect public opinion on political candidates and issues. This average is used to predict trends in voter preferences, especially during election seasons. The key components of national average polling are ‘Approval Ratings’, which indicate how well a political figure, such as the president, is perceived by the public, and ‘Party Preferences’, in which polling averages show which political party voters prefer. These national averages can significantly influence election outcomes. National average polling problems can lead to misleading narratives about voter preferences and election outcomes, which may influence campaign strategies, donor behavior, and media coverage.

National average polling faces several challenges, including lower response rates and a significant drop in survey participation, leading to biased samples; difficulty identifying likely voters and accurately predicting who will vote, especially in primaries; and systematic biases, such as underrepresenting certain voter groups, which affect overall accuracy. These issues are often presented with undue certainty while ignoring inherent uncertainties, which can lead to overconfident predictions and occasional large errors in close races.

National Average Methodology

National average polling is a crucial tool for gauging public opinion, but it faces several significant challenges that can affect its accuracy and reliability. National average polling aggregates results from various polls to reflect public opinion on political candidates and issues. This average is utilized for predicting trends in voter preferences, especially during election seasons.

Key Components of National Average Polling:

• Approval Ratings: These indicate how well a political figure, such as the president, is perceived by the public. For example, President Trump's current approval rating is around 38.8%, with a disapproval rate of 60.1%.
• Party Preferences: Polling averages also show which political party voters prefer. This can influence election outcomes significantly.

Response Rate Decline

• Lower Participation: Response rates for surveys have dramatically decreased, making it harder to gather a representative sample of voters. For example, telephone survey response rates have dropped from 36% in 1997 to the low single digits in recent years.
• Impact on Results: This decline can lead to biased results, as certain demographics may be underrepresented, particularly those less likely to respond to polls.

Identifying Likely Voters

• Difficulty in Prediction: Accurately identifying likely voters is increasingly challenging, especially in low-turnout elections. Polls may rely on outdated assumptions about who is likely to vote, leading to miscalculations.
• Example of Errors: In recent elections, polls have shown candidates with significant leads, only for those candidates to lose, indicating that the "likely voter" models used were flawed.

Systematic Biases

• Underrepresentation of Groups: Certain voter groups, particularly Republicans, have been less likely to participate in polls, which can skew results. This trend has been observed since the 2016 election and continues to affect polling accuracy.
• Overconfidence in Predictions: Pollsters often present results with a level of certainty that does not account for the inherent uncertainties in polling. This can lead to overconfident predictions that do not reflect actual voter behavior.

Summary of Key Issues

Challenge	Description
Response Rate Decline	Significant drop in survey participation rates, leading to biased samples.
Identifying Likely Voters	Difficulty in accurately predicting who will vote, especially in primaries.
Systematic Biases	Underrepresentation of certain voter groups, affecting overall accuracy.
Overconfidence in Predictions	Polls often presented with undue certainty, ignoring inherent uncertainties.

These challenges highlight the complexities of national average polling and the need for careful interpretation of poll results.

Nefarious Polling and Push Polls

Nefarious Polling

Nefarious polling refers to deceptive practices in polling, such as using fake accounts or misleading methods to manipulate results or influence public opinion. These tactics can significantly undermine trust in the electoral process and are often associated with misinformation campaigns.

Common Tactics in Nefarious Polling

• Fake Accounts: The use of fraudulent social media accounts to spread misinformation or skew poll results.
• Misleading Methods: Polls that employ questionable methodologies, such as online opt-in surveys that can be easily manipulated by individuals providing false information.
• Cherry-Picked Data: Selectively presenting data or incidents to support a narrative that may not reflect the overall truth.

Impact on Public Trust by Nefarious Polling

These deceptive practices can lead to:

• Erosion of Trust: Public confidence in polling and electoral integrity diminishes when people believe that results are manipulated.
• Spread of Misinformation: False narratives can proliferate, especially on social media, leading to widespread misconceptions about the electoral process.

Safeguards Against Nefarious Polling

To combat these issues, pollsters and election officials can implement several strategies:

• Cross-Referencing: Verifying responses against voter files to ensure legitimacy.
• Multi-Layered Approaches: Employing various methods to detect and prevent fraudulent responses, similar to public health strategies that use multiple safeguards.

Conclusion on Nefarious Polling

Nefarious polling can distort public perception and influence election outcomes, leading to misinformation and decreased trust in legitimate polls. This manipulation can create confusion among voters and undermine the democratic process by shaping narratives that do not reflect actual public opinion.

Push Polls

A push poll is a political campaign strategy that masquerades as an opinion poll. Its primary goal is to influence voters' perceptions rather than gather unbiased data. This technique often employs leading or loaded questions to sway opinions against a candidate or issue.

Characteristics of Push Polls

Push Polls differ from traditional opinion polls in their methodology. Push polls use biased language and leading questions to influence respondents' opinions, while traditional opinion polls aim to gather unbiased data through neutral questions. Traditional polls focus on accurately measuring public sentiment, whereas push polls prioritize persuasion over data collection.

Key Features of Push Polls

• Manipulative Intent: Unlike legitimate polls that aim to collect data, push polls are designed to push a specific viewpoint.
• Leading Questions: Questions are framed to suggest negative information about opponents. For example, asking if a voter would still support a candidate if they were accused of wrongdoing, without confirming the truth of the accusation.
• Lack of Data Analysis: Push polls typically do not analyze responses meaningfully; the focus is on the negative impact on the targeted candidate.

Ethical Concerns  of Push Polls

The ethical implications of using push polls in political campaigns include manipulating public opinion through misleading information, which undermines the integrity of the electoral process. Push polls are often condemned for being a form of negative campaigning that lacks transparency and accountability, potentially damaging the reputation of candidates without just cause.

Consequences of Push Polls

Push polls can have significant negative impacts on the political landscape and voter behavior. Below are the main consequences associated with their use.

Distortion of Public Opinion

• Manipulation of Perceptions: Push polls aim to sway voters toward a specific viewpoint rather than gather unbiased opinions. This can lead to a distorted understanding of public sentiment.
• Spread of Misinformation: They often include misleading or false claims about candidates, which can create unfounded doubts and fears among voters.

Ethical Concerns

• Unethical Practices: Push polling is widely regarded as an unethical tactic in political campaigning. It blurs the line between legitimate polling and propaganda, undermining trust in the electoral process.
• Negative Campaigning: The use of push polls is often associated with negative campaigning, which can contribute to a toxic political environment.

Impact on Candidates and Campaigns

• Reputation Damage: Candidates who engage in push polling risk damaging their own reputation if they are linked to deceptive practices. This can lead to a loss of credibility among voters.
• Legal and Regulatory Risks: While push polling is not illegal, it is regulated in many jurisdictions. Campaigns may face legal consequences if they violate these regulations, such as fines or restrictions on future campaigning.

Voter Engagement

• Discouragement of Participation: The use of push polls can lead to voter apathy. When voters feel manipulated or misled, they may be less likely to participate in future elections.
• Erosion of Trust: Push polls can erode public trust in legitimate polling and research efforts, making voters skeptical of all surveys and reducing their willingness to engage in political discourse.

Conclusion on Push Polls

Push polls are controversial because they can distort democratic processes and spread misinformation. They blur the line between research and propaganda, leading to public distrust in legitimate polling methods. Professional polling organizations condemn these practices, emphasizing the importance of ethical standards in survey research.

The Village Idiot and Feelings Problems with Polling

The term village idiot refers to a person locally known for ignorance, perceived stupidity, or excessive optimism. Political polling uses a representative sample of the population. As such, many village idiots are represented in a poll. And just a few idiots in the small sample size of polls can have an impact on the poll results. Also, this sampling captures only the sentiments and feelings of those sampled, because very rarely do the people being sampled have knowledge or experience of the subject being polled. Therefore, when a pollster asks what a person thinks, they are usually getting what a person feels. However, feelings are a poor basis for crafting public policy decisions. Or, as Warren Buffett has said:

"A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought."
- Warren Buffett

When polling people, you cannot know their scope of knowledge or experience on the subject. You could be polling the village idiots or the village wise men. Therefore, the results of the political polling will often not be a good basis for setting public policy. When reviewing political polls, you should keep in mind an ancient Chinese proverb:

“A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public opinion”

This is why our Founding Fathers created a Democratic-Republic. The people get to elect their leaders, but the leaders are to utilize their knowledge, intelligence, and wisdom to craft legislation, execute the laws, and adjudicate the laws. They did not expect our leaders to blindly follow public opinion, as they knew public opinion would be swayed by emotions, which often leads to bad law and, just as often, does not lead to good public policy.

The Use and Misuse of Polls

Which brings us to the question of the proper use of the polls. Political polls are often used to mold public opinion and influence public policy. However, this raises two important issues when developing public policy.

Think vs. Feel - or - Emotions are Easy, Thinking is Hard

Many (if not most) of today's political debates are about feelings. But feelings do not make for good policy. Facts, intelligence, and reasoning should be used to create policy, with feelings serving as a supplement to thinking. The difference is that feelings are emotion-based, while thinking is reason-based. But emotions are easy, while thinking is hard. Always remember that the only good way to create public policy is through an open and honest discussion of the issues based on “Facts, Intelligence, and Reasoning”. Listen to and debate all sides of an issue to ensure the best public policy is implemented. Otherwise, doing so often creates more problems than it solves. Doing so also reduces "The Law of Unintended Consequences", in which unexpected benefits, unexpected drawbacks, and perverse results occur.

With Facts, Intelligence, and Reasoning

Facts should be used with intellectual reasoning to determine the truth. To do otherwise would abrogate the truth and lead you into misjudgments. Allowing emotions into your facts and reasoning will also lead to falsehoods. You must, however, obtain all the facts before you apply intelligence and reasoning. This requires that you listen to and read all sides of an issue, not just the side you agree with. You need to winnow out the facts to determine their applicability, importance, and usefulness to your reasoning. You must also weigh the facts by importance and give more credence to the more important facts in your reasoning. Intelligent reasoning then requires that you apply formal and informal logic to the remaining facts. At the end of this process, and not before, you can claim that your decision is based on facts, intelligence, and reasoning.

However, public sentiment is very important in the crafting of public policy. Crafting public policy that goes against the public's sentiment is not wise, as it will often not be supported by the public. As Abraham Lincoln noted:

“In this age, in this country, public sentiment is everything. With it, nothing can fail; against it, nothing can succeed. Whoever molds public sentiment goes deeper than he who enacts statutes, or pronounces judicial decisions.”
- Abraham Lincoln

Politicians should use public polling to guide them in how best to explain their reasoning for public policy and as a means to change public sentiment. As Ronald Reagan has been quoted as saying:

"I utilize polls to determine how much convincing I need to do".
- Ronald Reagan

Many people are trying to use political polling to shape public policy decisions. But making sound public policy decisions requires more than public opinion. Or, as a famous Greek philosopher has stated:

"Just as it would be madness to settle on medical treatment for the body of a person by taking an opinion poll of the neighbors, so it is irrational to prescribe for the body politic by polling the opinions of the people at large."
- Plato

Any politician who uses political polling to determine public policy is doing a disservice to their country, as stated in the following two quotes from across the pond about the use of political polling:

"I did not enter the labor Party forty-seven years ago to have our manifesto written by Dr. Mori, Dr. Gallup and Mr. Harris."
- Tony Benn

"If you are guided by opinion polls, you are not practicing leadership -- you are practicing followership."
- Margaret Thatcher

Political Polling Advice

Political polling faces reliability issues stemming from low response rates, difficulty identifying "likely voters," and the rise of fake or manipulated polls that distort public perception. Experts note that polls are often oversold as definitive guides, and their results can be cherry-picked or misused by campaigns and the media. Together, low response rates, challenges in identifying likely voters, and the prevalence of fake polls fuel growing skepticism about political polling. This skepticism complicates how voters interpret polling data and can ultimately affect democratic processes.

Accordingly, whenever political polling is being utilized, you should always:

1. Beware the Poll Takers
2. Beware the Poll Results
3. Beware the Poll Utilizers

Or, you can do what I generally do:

1. Ignore the Public Polls.
2. Assume the Polls are Probably Inaccurate.
3. Remember - Things Change - So will the Public Polls.

Please note that I wrote this Article with the help of my AI Search Assistance, as I am not sufficiently knowledgeable about this topic to write it myself. Many of the AI Search Assistance results are based on a Wikipedia article and other sources on these topics, which I have hyperlinked within this Article. I have also merged and edited the different AI Search Assistance results for organizational purposes and to improve readability, clarity, and understandability.