The Personal Website of Mark W. Dawson

The Reality of UFOs and UAPs Chirps

With the recent release of the Pentagon files on Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) or Unexplained Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) sightings, it is important to ground your opinion of these sightings in scientific reasoning. For several years, I have Chirped about the science of UFOs and UAPs in the following Chirps:

08/25/19 Illumination, Not Titillation

Yesterday, I spent a pleasant few hours enjoying a cigar with my friends in a local cigar store and lounge. At this cigar store and lounge, they had the television tuned to the History channel playing back-to-back episodes of the “Ancient Aliens” series. As much as I tried to ignore these episodes, I did occasionally pay some attention to them. Being scientifically oriented I was astonished and exasperated as to the number of scientific inaccuracies and sometimes falsehoods, incorrect reasoning, logical fallacies, and cognitive biases, as examined in my Article on "Reasoning" of what the people being interviewed had to say. If I, or another scientific person, had a debate with them on this subject they would have ended up looking foolish to an impartial observer. Unfortunately, The History channel, and other scientific channels, often have such programming on other topics such as Intelligent Life, UFOs, Pseudoscience, and History mysteries. I am sure that these programs have enough of an audience to generate good ratings, and therefore revenues, for these channels as many people are interested in these subjects. They do not, however, accurately illuminate these subjects to provide the viewer with well-informed knowledge. I would suggest that you review my Article on “Intelligent Life, UFOs, and Pseudoscience”  for some scientific examinations of these subject.

08/26/19 SETI and Vulcan

Are we alone in the universe? Are there advanced civilizations that we can detect? How can we better the odds of making contact? These questions are both fundamental and universal, and examined in my new Science Article "SETI and Vulcan".

08/23/20 UAPs and UFOs

Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), a.k.a. Unidentified Flying Objects (UFO) are in the news. And much of the reporting is CRAP (Completely Ridiculous Alien Piffle), as Michael Shermer explains in his Scientific American article. In my Article, “Science vs. Science-Fiction”, I explain some of the difficulties of interstellar space travel, and why the Science in Science-Fiction is often not possible. In my article, I point out that ‘The Immensity of Space and Time’, the ‘Energy’ required to do so, and ‘That Which is Seen, and That Which is Unseen’ make the problems of traveling between the stars a daunting task. A task in which no alien civilization would undertake unless there were great benefits derived from undertaking this task.

The explanations of UAPs needs to be undertaken for scientific purpose, not for the purpose of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) as many would wish for. In my Article, “Intelligent Life in the Universe”, I point out the many issues in regard to this subject. The current reevaluation of UAPs by the Federal government does not seem to address these issues, but instead only focuses on Earthbound sightings of UAPs. Yet, these issues need to be addressed to provide a foundation for understanding the possible scientific explanations of UAPs. Therefore, let us cut out the CRAP and focus on the scientific explanations of UAPs.

08/16/21 Evolution to Intelligent Life Part Trois – Communicating or Visiting with Intelligent Life

In my previous two Chirps, “08/14/21 Evolution to Intelligent Life Part Un – The Rise of Intelligent Life” and “08/15/21 Evolution to Intelligent Life Part Deux – The Timeline of Intelligent Life”, I examined the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligent life, and if extraterrestrial intelligent life arose in our galaxy in the same timeframe as our own intelligent life. If such a possibility occurred, would it be possible for them or us to communicate or visit each other? 

Given the immense distances between stars and the limitations of the speed of light, such communications may take several decades to travel between the two stars. A two-way conversation between extraterrestrial intelligent life would therefore be almost impossible to maintain and may even be impossible to understand. Translating from one human language to another is fraught with problems, as anyone who has learned to read, write, and speak a second language is aware. Even when the languages are similar, there is a multitude of problems. When learning dissimilar languages, i.e., English and Mandarin, the problems are of a greater magnitude. It is possible for humans to do this, as we are all human and have many commonalities that assist us in this translation. Now imagine trying to learn an alien language in which there are few commonalities.

As to travel between these extraterrestrial civilizations, the immense distances between these extraterrestrial civilizations are also prohibitive. Given the energy required, as well as the scientific, technological, and ecological factors required to make the trip, such a trip would be extremely difficult. Even the sci-fi speculation of such things as warp drive, wormholes, subspace, and other exotic means of transportation would be an immense scientific and technological feat and could put us out of that 100-year time frame. And we must also keep in mind the problems of Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity when making this trip. In my Science Article, “Science vs. Science Fiction”, I examine the issues of Energy Requirements, The Immensity of Space and Time, That Which is Seen, and That Which is Unseen, and the Miscellaneous Science-Fiction Issues as it pertains to space travel.

You should also be careful of wanting to communicate or meet extraterrestrial civilizations. Human history has many sad examples of when a more advanced society meeting a less advanced society. It has often been the case that the less advanced society suffers tremendously, if not being obliterated.  

With the recent release of the governments' knowledge on ‘Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs)’, or my preferred term ‘Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs)’, much speculation has arisen that these objects are visitations from extraterrestrial intelligent life. But such speculations should be tempered by my thoughts on this and my previous two Chirps.

There is no doubt that these sightings are unidentified, that they are aerial (as opposed to land or sea), and that they are a phenomenon, but are they visitations from extraterrestrial intelligent life? When analyzing UAPs, you must keep in mind the Philosophical Occam's razor:

"Simpler explanations are more likely to be correct; avoid unnecessary or improbable assumptions."

or:

"The simplest explanation, that fits all the known facts, is most often the correct explanation."

To presume that these UAP’s are visitations from extraterrestrial intelligent life is to violate this razor. There is no question that we should investigate these sightings to determine their true nature. But these UAP’s are more likely to be natural and of a nature that we do not have knowledge about. To jump to the conclusion that they are visitations from an extraterrestrial intelligent life is a leap too great for any rational person to make. Flights of fantasy are wonderful human imaginations, but flights of fantasy are not a way to scientifically investigate these phenomena. Let us rein in the speculation and determine the truth of these phenomena.

09/02/21 You Can’t Win, You Can’t Break Even, and You Can’t Quit the Game

You Can’t Win, You Can’t Break Even, and You Can’t Quit the Game is an apt description of the Laws of Thermodynamics as explained for non-scientists on the webpage of HIGHBROW:

“The physicist C.P. Snow (who was also a writer) stated that a person who was not a scientist and didn’t know about thermodynamics was similar to a scientist who never studied Shakespeare. This famous statement was stated to show that it was important for non-scientists to learn about thermodynamics and be familiar with the significance of the field.

Thermodynamics examines how energy works in a given system, whether it is an engine or the core of the earth. Thermodynamics can be boiled down to group of fundamental laws. Snow wittily summarized the laws as follows: “You can’t win,” “You can’t break even,” and “You can’t quit the game.”

In stating that you cannot win, Snow explains that since the matter cannot be lost, you can’t achieve one ideal without changing something else (i.e., E=mc²). Additionally, Snow suggests that for an engine to do any work, heat must be given. However, in all except expertly closed systems, an amount of heat is invariably lost in the process, which serves as an introduction to the second law.

Snow then states you can’t break even. Here he suggests that because of increasing entropy, it is impossible to go back to a past state of energy. Energy that is packed into one place will diffuse to a place that has lower concentration.

And for the third law, “You can’t quit the game,” this refers to absolute zero. This number represents the smallest plausible temperature, which is zero Kelvin or -273.15 degrees Celsius and -459.67 degrees Fahrenheit. Once a system arrives at absolute zero, all molecules stop moving, kinetic energy can’t exist, and entropy reaches the lowest value it will ever have. However, in the world, as we experience it, you cannot get to absolute zero (but some experts have tried to get close).”

The Laws of Thermodynamics apply to all energy systems in the Universe. Consequently, on any discussion involving an energy system, you must be cognizant of the Laws of Thermodynamics to have a rational discussion. As I have explained in the section on “Laws of Thermodynamics and Entropy” in my Science Article “The Fundamental Properties and Constants of the Universe”, this is especially evident when discussing space travel.

As I have explained in my Science Article “Science vs. Science-Fiction”, whenever anyone starts discussing UFO’s or UAP’s you must think of how “Energy” and “The Immensity of Space and Time” and the other issues in this article would apply if these UFO’s or UAP’s were a result of alien civilizations visiting Earth. When you start to consider the scientific and technological issues of interstellar travel, you begin to realize the immense problems of interstellar travel. These science and technology problems are so great that interstellar travel seems highly unlikely. If you retort that perhaps things from Science Fiction like Warp Drive, Hyperspace, Subspace, Worm Holes, etc., could be utilized for interstellar travel, I would remind you that these are fictional terms and not scientific terms.

Perhaps, someday in the far future, we may discover some things about the Fundamental Properties of the Universe that would allow for these Science Fiction methods of propulsion. But this seems unlikely, as the advancement of science to date has led us to a good understanding of the limitations of the universal properties of the Universe.

09/11/21 Speculations of Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life

Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), a.k.a. Unidentified Flying Objects (UFO) are in the news with the recent release of the governments' knowledge on ‘Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs)’, or the new preferred term ‘Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs)’. Much speculation has arisen that these objects are visitations from extraterrestrial intelligent life. And much of this speculation is CRAP (Completely Ridiculous Alien Piffle), as Michael Shermer explains in his Scientific American article. In my articles, Intelligent Life in the Universe” and “Evolution to Intelligent Life”, I examine the possibilities probabilities of Intelligent Life. While in my Article, “Science vs. Science-Fiction”, I explain some of the difficulties of interstellar space travel, and why the ‘Science’ in Science-Fiction is often not possible.

Such speculations of extraterrestrial intelligent life should be tempered by my thoughts in these articles. It should also be remembered that science cannot explain all things, as our scientific knowledge is far from complete. As Michael Shermer ends his aforementioned article:

“In all fields of science there is a residue of anomalies unexplained by the dominant theory. That does not mean the prevailing theory is wrong or that alternative theories are right. It just means that more work needs to be done to bring those anomalies into the accepted paradigm. In the meantime, it is okay to live with the uncertainty that not everything has an explanation.”

The explanations of UAPs needs to be undertaken for scientific purpose, and the possibility that they are foreign technology that could pose a national threat, and not for the purpose of confirming Extraterrestrial Intelligence as many would wish for.

06/03/26 Interplanetary and Interstellar Travel

With the success of the Artemis II mission, which flew around the moon and returned safely to Earth, hopes for a lunar outpost have risen. While this is indeed possible (with some scientific concerns), hopes for a manned Mars mission have also risen. However, a manned Mars mission is much more difficult, with several issues that could be stumbling blocks. My new science article, “Can We Go to Mars?”, outlines these stumbling blocks and their impacts on a manned Mars mission.

We often look up at the night sky, convinced that in a universe this vast, someone must be looking back. We also wonder and hope that we can visit them or that they have visited us. But what if the laws of nature themselves prevent contact? From the absolute limit of the Speed of Light, impacts of relativistic inertial mass increase, to Time Dilation in Einstein’s theory of Special Relativity, to the curvature and the nature of spacetime in Einstein’s theory of General Relativity, the Laws of Thermodynamics, Conservation Laws (conservation of mass-energy, conservation of linear momentum, conservation of angular momentum, and conservation of electric charge), and Newton’s Laws of Motion, interstellar travel is likely impossible, which explains why we are truly alone in the universe and why we have not been visited by alien civilizations. From the tyranny of the Rocket Equation to the Lorentz factor, the impossibility of interstellar travel isn't about technology; it's about the fundamental structure of reality. The Fermi Paradox also explains why UFOs are likely not what you think they are and why the silence of the universe is actually a beautiful thing. My new science article, “Is Interstellar Travel Possible?”, examines the scientific issues of Interstellar travel.

06/14/26 The Fermi Paradox and The Cosmic Haystack Problem

The Fermi Paradox highlights the contradiction between the high likelihood of extraterrestrial civilizations in the universe and the lack of evidence for or contact with them. Named after physicist Enrico Fermi, the paradox stems from his famous question, "Where is everybody?" This inquiry arose during a 1950 discussion about the existence of aliens.

The Cosmic Haystack Problem captures the significant challenge of finding extraterrestrial intelligence, given the vastness of space and the many variables involved, making the search akin to finding a needle in a haystack. Factors such as signal frequency, transmission power, and directionality complicate the detection of potential extraterrestrial signals. The Cosmic Haystack Problem explains why the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) has not yet detected signals from alien civilizations.

My new science article, “The Fermi Paradox and The Cosmic Haystack Problem”, examines in more detail the paradox and problem regarding the existence and detection of intelligent alien civilizations. This article is a companion piece to my other Science Article, “Intelligent Life in the Universe”, in which I examine the possibility and probability of the factors that would lead to Intelligent Life evolving on other planets.

07/11/26 Speculation Is Not Proof

“The greatest danger in today's UAP debate is not government secrecy. It is public certainty.”
 - Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis, (ret.)

Robert Maginnis is a retired U.S. Army infantry officer, senior fellow for National Security at the Family Research Council, and the author of 14 books, who served 24 years as an Army officer and another 22 years as a Pentagon strategist. In an article, “America is right to investigate UAP claims, but that’s only the beginning”, he explains why better questions matter more than speculation:

“Some have already decided unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) prove extraterrestrial visitation. Others insist every report is nonsense or simple misidentification. Neither position reflects disciplined analysis. Good intelligence work begins neither with belief nor disbelief. It begins with evidence.”

He then goes on to make three points about the current UFO/UAP discussions:

• Classification is not proof
  “Classification is not proof. Neither is testimony, however sincere. Evidence, not confidence, must remain our standard. Good analysts distinguish between what remains secret and what remains unexplained.”
• Investigation is not interpretation
  “Governments can collect radar tracks, infrared imagery, pilot testimony and sensor data. None of those, by themselves, explain what these phenomena actually are.”
• A question bigger than science
  “That is why today's debate is not fundamentally about unidentified flying objects. It is about how we determine what is true. Science explains observable phenomena remarkably well, but it cannot answer questions of ultimate meaning. Those questions lead us into philosophy, and ultimately, theology.”

These three points are apropos in all discussions about the unexplained. The history of science is the process of explaining the unknown so that it becomes known. And all these scientific explanations are based on observational and/or experimental evidence. Until scientific evidence is obtained, any conjectures are speculation, and speculation is not proof.

Thus, given the scarcity and often unreliability of scientific evidence regarding UFOs/UAPs, and the fact that many UFOs/UAPs reports have been explained as natural phenomena, the remaining unexplained UFOs/UAPs reports should not be taken as proof of alien visitations.

In addition, proponents of alien visitation claims regarding unexplained UFOs/UAPs need to address the scientific questions about The Rise of Intelligent Life,  Intelligent Life in the Universe, and the challenges of Interstellar Travel. At this point in our scientific knowledge, these questions cast serious doubt on the existence of intelligent alien life in our galaxy at this time, and even if it did exist, on whether it would be possible for them to achieve interstellar travel.

Thus, skepticism is warranted, not certainty, regarding claims of alien visitation to Earth. We should also remember the Sagan Philosophical Razor: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence", and demand extraordinary evidence before becoming certain about the existence of intelligent alien visitations to Earth.

07/12/26 The Unanswered Question of UFOs and UAPs

Theoretical studies on Interstellar Travel focus on the scientific principles and challenges, such as the vast distances and energy requirements, while science fiction often employs imaginative concepts like faster-than-light travel and advanced propulsion systems. Space travel in science fiction tends to prioritize narrative and creativity over scientific accuracy, allowing for more fantastical elements that are not currently feasible.

Faster-than-light travel concepts in science fiction often involve mechanisms such as warp drives, hyperspace, or wormholes that provide shortcuts through space, whereas current scientific understanding, based on Einstein's theory of relativity, prohibits any matter or information from traveling faster than the speed of light. These fictional ideas often overlook the complexities of physics and the limitations imposed by our understanding of spacetime.

Many reputable scientists, including the late Richard Feynman and Carl Sagan, as well as current scientists such as Leonard Susskind, Brian Greene, and Neil deGrasse Tyson, along with other physicists, have expressed concern that interstellar travel may be impossible because of the physics involved in interstellar travel and the massive technological and engineering challenges of designing, developing, operating, and maintaining a spacecraft capable of interstellar travel. My own science article, “Is Interstellar Travel Possible?”, examines these and other issues that suggest interstellar travel is not possible.

 Dr. Michio Kaku has written an interesting article on his website, “The Physics of Interstellar Travel”, in which he examines some of the issues and problems of interstellar travel. He states in this article:

“Similarly, investigations into UFO’s that may originate from another planet are sometimes the “third rail” of someone’s scientific career. There is no funding for anyone seriously looking at unidentified objects in space, and one’s reputation may suffer if one pursues an interest in these unorthodox matters. In addition, perhaps 99% of all sightings of UFO’s can be dismissed as being caused by familiar phenomena, such as the planet Venus, swamp gas (which can glow in the dark under certain conditions), meteors, satellites, weather balloons, even radar echoes that bounce off mountains. (What is disturbing, to a physicist however, is the remaining 1% of these sightings, which are multiple sightings made by multiple methods of observations. Some of the most intriguing sightings have been made by seasoned pilots and passengers aboard air line flights which have also been tracked by radar and have been videotaped. Sightings like this are harder to dismiss.)”

He concludes this article by stating:

“Most scientists doubt interstellar travel because the light barrier is so difficult to break. However, to go faster than light, one must go beyond Special Relativity to General Relativity and the quantum theory. Therefore, one cannot rule out interstellar travel if an advanced civilization can attain enough energy to destabilize space and time. Perhaps only a Type III civilization can harness the Planck energy, the energy at which space and time become unstable. Various proposals have been given to exceed the light barrier (including wormholes and stretched or warped space) but all of them require energies found only in Type III galactic civilizations. On a mathematical level, ultimately, we must wait for a fully quantum mechanical theory of gravity (such as superstring theory) to answer these fundamental questions, such as whether wormholes can be created and whether they are stable enough to allow for interstellar travel.”

The scientific investigations into how interstellar travel may be accomplished are but Scientific Speculation, and they have no basis in the actual science of observation and experimentation. While Scientific Speculation is important, it is not definitive, and it should be taken with a grain of salt and not construed as factual or true.

Consequently, the question of whether Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) or Unexplained Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) are spacecraft from an alien civilization hinges on the possibility of interstellar travel. For if interstellar travel is not possible, then UFOs and UAPs cannot be alien spacecraft.